updated 2009.05.13
SAD (Surprises, Adjustments, Delays)
There comes a time in every complex,
large-scale project when things are not shaping up the way you had
hoped. For us, this is that time.
After months of design and revisions,
we finally reached a point where we felt comfortable with the
structural envelop of the house and overall floor plan. The design was
submitted to the city for approval by the Planning Department and concurrently to contractors
for bids. To our surprise, the contractors' bids were in a very wide range, with the high bid coming in at almost double the low bid.
Given
the added uncertainty from the economic downturn, we were especially
concerned with our budget. So, to mitigate the risks we reduced the
scope of the plan by removing the top floor entirely, as well as
economizing elsewhere. Even with the reduced scope, though, the bids were higher than anticipated. It appeared to us that the Bay Area had
experienced decades of high demand for construction work and,
despite the economic downturn resulting in contractors being
more available, prices had remained just as high as they were in the boom
days. At the same time, we have seen real estate prices fall, partly due to
the tightening of credit and partly due to a notably increased supply of foreclosures or short-sales. While we may believe that prices will
rebound due to the long term fundamentals of the area, such as the
availability of high-paying jobs, the lack of land able to be developed and a pleasant
climate, we also
need to consider the short term value of our time as well as the emotional and financial investment we are making in the house.
After evaluating the current economic
climate, market conditions, availability of credit and the most likely duration and cost of construction, we decided that the best way to proceed would be to divide the project into phases to minimize the risk at each
phase. In the meantime, we are also evaluating the pros and cons of using a fixed bid
contract versus a time-and-materials contract, which we will share in
another article.